Obama’s Ann Arbor Gambit

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It seems all the buzz about the Democratic presidential primaries has focused recently on whether Michigan and Florida should have a "do-over" of their primaries. 

 Senator Carl Levin said this past weekend that Michigan could do a revote by way of a mail-in primary, although he opposes an conducting a full-scale primary again.  

 Senator Hillary Clinton "won" the Michigan primary on January 15, winning 55% of the vote. Senators Barack Obama and John Edwards did not have their name on the ballot. 40% of Michigan voters said they were "uncommitted" to a candidate in the primary.  

 Conventional wisdom suggests that a revote, at least in Michigan, would favor Clinton. She won here in January while still abiding by party rules not to campaign here. Additionally, the blue-collar industrial workers her campaign has won in similar states like Ohio are prevalent in Michigan, suggesting an advantage for Clinton. 

 To that end, the Free Press reports, two surrogates for Obama appear reticent about a revote. 

 The Obama campaign, though, may take some solace if there is a revote. In Washtenaw County, which contains Ann Arbor, as well at the University of Michigan, Clinton lost to uncommitted by a margin of 710 votes. Though there was no serious concerted effort to organize on campus besides token op-eds by campus campaign representatives, it strongly suggests that Obama's advantage among college students could be leveraged in a revote to partly neutralize the delegates Hillary Clinton may pick up in a Michigan primary revote.

Comments

Hello, Michael, Thank you for

Hello, Michael, Thank you for your outline of the situation in Michigan. Are the people very upset about not being counted?