By Sara Johnson

Midterm elections are often tough for the Democrats in the districts Patchwork Nation calls Wired and Educated. It can be tough to get the youth vote out in those districts, which often hold large numbers of college students and universities. Those voters tune in for presidential years, but not so much for midterms.

Low student vote hurt the Democrats in Indiana’s 9th district, where incumbent Baron Hill went down to defeat when he didn’t get the votes he needed from the Indiana University student populace. 

But after a recanvass that held Kentucky’s 6th district in limbo for ten days, the Democrats managed to keep one of their few remaining blue holdouts in red Kentucky for at least another two years. Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler narrowly beat Republican challenger Andy Barr by a 0.2 percent margin — the closest race in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district in ten years.

The day after votes were cast, all counties except Lincoln were completely reported and Chandler led by a mere 643 votes — close enough that Barr requested a recanvass of the votes. Barr conceded the election to Chandler on Nov. 12, allowing the district to remain blue. The official vote count will be certified by Kentucky’s Board of Elections on Nov. 22.

So…what happened?

Kentucky’s 6th congressional district is classified as Wired and Educated primarily for one reason: Fayette, the largest county in the district, is the home of the University of Kentucky. And since 2000, the county has grown by eight percent, making it a moderating influence on the rest of the district.

This election illustrates that influence. While Chandler carried only six of the sixteen counties in the district, those votes were enough to win the seat.

With 88,490 votes cast, Fayette County was huge for Chandler, who captured a 4,385-vote margin. And the growth in the population in the more liberal leaning county around was key. There were 16,000 more votes cast in Fayette than there were during the last midterm in 2006. That extra turnout arguably propelled Chandler to the win.

Franklin County, which had the highest voter turnout rate in the district, gave Chandler a 4,570-vote margin.

Madison County, which went Republican, had the second most total votes to Fayette County. Yet even in that county, Barr took only a 1,162-vote lead. The counties that voted Democratic also had a higher average turnout rate — 51.59 percent compared to 48.22 percent turnout in the counties that went Republican.

Looking For Bigger Conclusions

On the whole, Kentucky’s 6th congressional district has very similar demographics, on average, to national averages of high school graduates, median income and racial breakdowns. Nationally, the Republicans made major national gains this election in House, Senate and Governor’s races.

The turnout numbers need to be gone over here more closely. It could be the 6th benefited from a higher turnout in and around the University of Kentucky  — or the larger moderating effects in the area around it.  But this district potentially pokes holes in the permanence of the Republican gains. In this district, most of the counties voted only slightly more for Barr ­— somewhere between a few hundred to a few thousand votes. This is hardly the overwhelming GOP-backing that the Republican party is touting.

Aside from Fayette and Franklin counties, the Democrat wins were equally narrow.

But it may be that as the populations around universities grow their influence might reach out to a broader area around them. That could have significance in these Wired and Educated districts in the coming years.

For the moment though, what we know is the Democrats managed to hold onto a swing district for two more years even in the face of a strong Republican tide.