Service Worker Centers
February 14, 2012
The dominant story coming out of Tuesday’s three big wins for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum – Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota –has been his strength with conservative voters and Mitt Romney’s need to find a way to reach them. But that's not the whole story.
There’s a good deal of truth to that "Romney needs conservatives" line of thought. Mr. Santorum has the endorsement of a group of influential evangelical leaders and the caucus format – like that in Minnesota and Colorado votes Tuesday night – tends to favor more ideologically pure candidates.
Look closely at the county results out of the first nominating contests, however, and there is another issue at play. A class war may be quietly unfolding in the Republican primaries and caucuses with former Massachusetts Gov. Romney standing on one side of the front and his opponents standing on the other.
To this point, 390 counties have voted in the GOP contests (...
February 8, 2012
So what exactly happened Tuesday night? Suddenly former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has reemerged from the pack to claim the spotlight with three wins – Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri – while front-runner Mitt Romney is combing through the wreckage.
The former Massachusetts governor is arguing that last night was ultimately just a bump on the road to the nomination. No delegates were committed and he did not campaign hard in the states that held contests.
Still, three losses in one night was tough for Romney, a blow to his momentum at the very least. And as bad as the Tuesday results were at the state level for Mr. Romney, they were actually worse in some ways when you break the votes down to the county-level using Patchwork Nation.
Romney’s Bad Night
Romney did not win a single county in Minnesota or Missouri. He won 16 counties in Colorado, but there was a definite pattern to his wins and it centered on income.
The average median household income...
February 7, 2012
Follow Tuesday's vote LIVE with the Patchwork Nation breakdowns from WNYC here: COLORADO, MINNESOTA and MISSOURI
The big political story out of Tuesday night will be who wins the contests on the schedule – Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Those final tallies will determine the momentum in the Republican presidential battle going forward.
But beyond the simple question of statewide winners and losers there are more subtle and significant measures to keep an eye on in the results tonight. Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic breakdown can offer insights that extend beyond win-loss column.
Use this crib sheet along with WNYC’s live maps for COLORADO, MINNESOTA and MISSOURI to follow which candidates are winning in Patchwork Nation’s 12 county types.
What to Watch for in Colorado
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won big in Florida among Hispanics and won overall in the counties Patchwork Nation calls Immigration Nation – counties...
February 6, 2012
With January in the books, the GOP nominating contest sits where many thought it would be — including Politics Counts. Two wins for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and two wins for conservative alternatives to him – former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in Iowa and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in South Carolina.
Mr. Romney’s got the delegate lead, the front-runner status and the momentum, but judging by all the movement of the past six months it’s hard to tell what that means. The campaign now enters what many are describing as an interstitial period between the exciting early contests and the jam-packed primary calendar of March.
But seven states hold nominating contests in February (Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, Maine, Arizona and Michigan) and they should not be ignored. Six of them will have convention delegates up for grabs. The vote from them will show us a lot about what the Republican field will look like come March 6,...
February 1, 2012
With a dominating win in Florida, the Romney campaign moves forward with a nice push of momentum into February. And now, well, who knows?
The one certainty of the 2012 presidential campaign thus far is its uncertainty. It wasn’t long ago when we were talking about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s dominating win in South Carolina and, before that, the possibility that Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, could be looking at a January sweep.
But few things seem clear out of the Florida results. Romney has again reestablished himself as the front-runner for now. And, maybe more important, he has reestablished himself as the candidates of the wealthier swing-voting communities – counties that Patchwork Nation calls the Monied Burbs. Romney won six of Florida’s seven Monied Burbs and 49% of the vote in them overall. (You can see the results analyzed through Patchwork Nation’s 12 county types here.)
As we have noted in the past, those places...
January 21, 2012
First it was Bain. Then it was releasing income tax returns. Then came the Cayman Islands. The conversation about Mitt Romney has turned in recent weeks and settled into what could be an uncomfortable spot for the former Massachusetts governor. The questions focus on his wealth and how he has managed it.
Mr. Romney, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, was bound to be tested – every front-runner is. Opponents have dug into his record as a politician to determine whether he is conservative enough for the party. They have criticized him for flip-flopping on issues.
But these new talking points on Mr. Romney are something different because they go beyond politics and policy. They strike at Mr. Romney’s everyman-ness, that question every politician ultimately faces about whether he is like “you and me.” And, when you look at the numbers – votes and exit polls in Iowa and New Hampshire – they feed into a narrative that seems easy...
January 11, 2012
Mitt Romney had a lot of advantages going into New Hampshire – from residency to voter demographics – and in the end it all showed up on Tuesday night. It was an impressive win.
The former Massachusetts governor won nine of the state’s 10 counties. He won a larger percentage of the vote than he or Sen. John McCain won in 2008 – 39 percent to 37 percent for McCain. And using Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic breakdown of counties, he won in all of the state’s county types from the wealthy Monied Burbs to the small town Service Worker Centers.
The meaning for the nominating process has already been hashed over and over. In winning both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary, Romney has pulled off a trick no non-incumbent GOP presidential candidate has even done. He looks well-prepared for the votes to come down the road in South Carolina and Florida this month and probably for the nomination.
But the potentially bigger message...
January 10, 2012
If you were devising a state where GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney could do well in a vote, it would probably look a lot like New Hampshire.
Romney was the governor of Massachusetts, which sits next door. He has a home in New Hampshire. And, from the perspective of Patchwork Nation’s geographic/demographic breakdown of counties, the Granite State offers excellent electoral terrain.
As we noted last week after the Iowa Caucuses, Romney seems to be emerging as the GOP candidate of the wealthy, largely suburban Monied Burbs. In fact, in Iowa the only county type where Romney did better in 2012 than he did in 2008 were the state’s Monied Burbs.
And the overwhelming majority of people in New Hampshire – some 61 percent – live in Monied Burb counties, in beige on the map below.
Bearing all those advantages in mind, Romney’s strong poll numbers in New Hampshire is not surprising, though recent days have shown his lead in shrinking. Even if...
January 7, 2012
This was a good week to be Mitt Romney. Not only did he eke out an eight-vote win in the first nominating contest of the year – the Iowa caucuses – but afterward he got to go home. The former Massachusetts governor has an estate in New Hampshire, where Tuesday’s primary vote will be held.
At this point winning New Hampshire almost looks like a formality for Mr. Romney. Polls currently show him sitting with about 40% support there and, as we have noted in this space before, Patchwork Nation’s geographic/demographic breakdown shows the state’s electoral terrain is made for him.
Only four of Patchwork Nation’s 12 county types are represented there – the Monied Burbs, Boom Towns, Campus and Careers and small town Service Worker Centers counties — and Mr. Romney won three of those four in Iowa, all except the Service Worker Centers.
With all those Romney advantages in place, what exactly is there to look for in Tuesday...
December 19, 2011
Going into 2012, the biggest shift in the electorate may be its feelings about who is best suited to handle the challenges of the economy. Back in 2008, the Democratic Party was not only the choice on the poll question “which party would do a better job” with the economy, it was the choice by a wide margin. Urban, suburban and rural, young and old, rich and poor, geographic and demographic groups of all stripes chose the Democrats.
The picture is very different on the eve of the 2012 primary season, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. Republicans best Democrats on that same question with some very important voting blocs, including the elderly, the wealthy, middle income voters, white working class voters and suburbanites.
The Democratic Party’s fall since 2008 has been sharp: a 15 percentage point drop among 18- to 34-year-olds and those 65 and older, a 12-point drop among those who make more than $75,000 a year, an 11-point slide...
