Patchwork nation blogs
February 17, 2012
Among the many forces that go into shaping a campaign – from speeches to advertisements – late-night comedy has earned a special place. It’s where narratives about candidates can be created and grow free of the constraints of regular journalism, for better or worse. On late-night TV a candidate can be branded and rebranded as a flip-flopper or stiff (see Sen. John Kerry in 2004) or reckless and foolish (frequently part of the jabs at former President George W. Bush).
But not all late-night shows are the same. For some, politics is more than just the stuff of monologue one-liners; it’s a critical element to the program. Take, for instance, the late-night shows on Comedy Central, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report. They thrive on politics. And when you look at who watches those shows through Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic county breakdown an interesting pattern emerges.
Both shows do well in places where the vote is...
February 15, 2012
It may be that Mitt Romney's problem, his falling numbers since last week in state and national polls, is his base.
Nine states into the Republican presidential nominating contests, a very clear pattern emerges in Patchwork Nation's demographic/geographic breakdown of counties. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is relying heavily on wealthy suburban counties - counties we call the Monied 'Burbs - to win states.
The Republican presidential nominating calendar has moved through 43 Monied 'Burb counties so far, and Romney has won 21 of them. That's even though former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has won far more counties overall thanks to his Feb. 7 gains.
That's not a surprise to Patchwork Nation. We have noted since fall that Romney's base was the 'Burbs. It has been his biggest donation support base.
Winning in the 'Burbs can be a very good thing for a politician. Those counties hold large numbers of swing voters that...
February 14, 2012
The dominant story coming out of Tuesday’s three big wins for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum – Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota –has been his strength with conservative voters and Mitt Romney’s need to find a way to reach them. But that's not the whole story.
There’s a good deal of truth to that "Romney needs conservatives" line of thought. Mr. Santorum has the endorsement of a group of influential evangelical leaders and the caucus format – like that in Minnesota and Colorado votes Tuesday night – tends to favor more ideologically pure candidates.
Look closely at the county results out of the first nominating contests, however, and there is another issue at play. A class war may be quietly unfolding in the Republican primaries and caucuses with former Massachusetts Gov. Romney standing on one side of the front and his opponents standing on the other.
To this point, 390 counties have voted in the GOP contests (...
February 12, 2012
One of the early disappointments of Governor Bobby Jindal's first term was an ethics reform package that generated great headlines but lacked an effective enforcement mechanism. The PR effort was nonetheless important as Louisiana has - much to its detriment - long suffered from an image as a corrupt backwater. The passage ethics reform with a strong PR push helped to change those perceptions and subsequently made Louisiana's economic development efforts more competitive.
Even so, the weakness of the reform package left many critics (myself included) disappointed with the disconnect between the policy's substance and its PR. I noted in a previous post that Governor Jindal's second term appears to be committed to bolder action and substantive policy shifts. His most recent move on ethics reform - clarifying the responsibilities of the ethics board and strengthening enforcement - is further evidence to this point.
Another positive sign and...
February 8, 2012
So what exactly happened Tuesday night? Suddenly former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has reemerged from the pack to claim the spotlight with three wins – Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri – while front-runner Mitt Romney is combing through the wreckage.
The former Massachusetts governor is arguing that last night was ultimately just a bump on the road to the nomination. No delegates were committed and he did not campaign hard in the states that held contests.
Still, three losses in one night was tough for Romney, a blow to his momentum at the very least. And as bad as the Tuesday results were at the state level for Mr. Romney, they were actually worse in some ways when you break the votes down to the county-level using Patchwork Nation.
Romney’s Bad Night
Romney did not win a single county in Minnesota or Missouri. He won 16 counties in Colorado, but there was a definite pattern to his wins and it centered on income.
The average median household income...
February 7, 2012
Follow Tuesday's vote LIVE with the Patchwork Nation breakdowns from WNYC here: COLORADO, MINNESOTA and MISSOURI
The big political story out of Tuesday night will be who wins the contests on the schedule – Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Those final tallies will determine the momentum in the Republican presidential battle going forward.
But beyond the simple question of statewide winners and losers there are more subtle and significant measures to keep an eye on in the results tonight. Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic breakdown can offer insights that extend beyond win-loss column.
Use this crib sheet along with WNYC’s live maps for COLORADO, MINNESOTA and MISSOURI to follow which candidates are winning in Patchwork Nation’s 12 county types.
What to Watch for in Colorado
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won big in Florida among Hispanics and won overall in the counties Patchwork Nation calls Immigration Nation – counties...
February 6, 2012
With January in the books, the GOP nominating contest sits where many thought it would be — including Politics Counts. Two wins for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and two wins for conservative alternatives to him – former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in Iowa and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in South Carolina.
Mr. Romney’s got the delegate lead, the front-runner status and the momentum, but judging by all the movement of the past six months it’s hard to tell what that means. The campaign now enters what many are describing as an interstitial period between the exciting early contests and the jam-packed primary calendar of March.
But seven states hold nominating contests in February (Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, Maine, Arizona and Michigan) and they should not be ignored. Six of them will have convention delegates up for grabs. The vote from them will show us a lot about what the Republican field will look like come March 6,...
February 1, 2012
With a dominating win in Florida, the Romney campaign moves forward with a nice push of momentum into February. And now, well, who knows?
The one certainty of the 2012 presidential campaign thus far is its uncertainty. It wasn’t long ago when we were talking about former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s dominating win in South Carolina and, before that, the possibility that Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, could be looking at a January sweep.
But few things seem clear out of the Florida results. Romney has again reestablished himself as the front-runner for now. And, maybe more important, he has reestablished himself as the candidates of the wealthier swing-voting communities – counties that Patchwork Nation calls the Monied Burbs. Romney won six of Florida’s seven Monied Burbs and 49% of the vote in them overall. (You can see the results analyzed through Patchwork Nation’s 12 county types here.)
As we have noted in the past, those places...
January 31, 2012
The game of presidential see-saw the GOP has been playing in 2012 continues Tuesday night in Florida.
A short 10 days ago former House speaker Newt Gingrich emerged from the South Carolina Primary with a big win and lot of momentum. It looks like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is ready to take the momentum back. Many polls show him with a double-digit lead in the Sunshine State.
Florida is considered a critical contest because of the state's size and diversity. More people will vote Tuesday night than have voted in all the Republican nominating contests thus far combined. And nearly all of Patchwork Nation's geographic/demographic county types -- 10 of the 12 -- are represented in the peninsula.
But regardless of who wins the state, there are some key components in the vote to keep an eye on. (You can follow the vote live through the Patchwork Nation county-types on WNYC's website here.)
WHERE ARE THE BASES OF SUPPORT?
In many ways, Romney's lead in...
January 27, 2012
In every presidential primary season we eventually reach a vote that is portrayed as must-win for the top candidates, the showdown. This year that vote is Tuesday’s Florida Primary.
Florida is being framed as the place where we will discover whether former House Speaker Newt Gingrich can win a big, diverse state with a closed primary giving him incredible momentum going forward. Or, conversely, whether former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney simply stumbled in very conservative South Carolina and, upon reflection, Republican voters are reaffirming his front-runner status.
Those are dramatic storylines to be sure. Who doesn’t like sudden-death politics? But look closer at the state and the path ahead
and Florida doesn’t really look like a must-win – particularly for Mr. Romney. Rather it is about key counties in the state, mostly places that Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic breakdown calls the Monied Burbs and the Boom Towns.
What...
